Where our numbers come from

Amnesty hand-ins: how we count them

We compare January to June 2026 with the same months of 2025, so seasonal patterns don't distort the result. Each month's total is firearms surrendered to dealers plus firearms surrendered to police under the permanent amnesty.

Firearms that dealers later pass on to police are excluded, because they were already counted when the dealer took them in. Counting them again would double count.

Source: NSW Police Force Firearms Registry, Public Website Data Reporting (Nov 2025 & Jun 2026).

The projection

The projection to June 2027 starts from the January–June 2026 monthly average. Dealers account for about 80% of amnesty hand-ins, so we reduce that share in line with our dealer survey: dealers who can no longer offer amnesty services drop out straight away, those stopping within one to three months drop out over three months, and those who don't know or are continuing stay in. Police hand-ins are held steady.

It's a projection, not a forecast. It assumes nothing else changes, such as people travelling further to reach a dealer who still takes firearms in.

Sources

1. NSW Police Force Firearms Registry, Public Website Data Reporting (Nov 2025 and Jun 2026)Monthly amnesty hand-ins to dealers and police; dealer-to-police disposals; firearms handed to dealers since July 2021.
2. Australian Institute of Criminology, Trends & Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice No. 15190.6% of firearms used in homicide were not registered to the offender.
3. Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission, Illicit firearms in Australia (as reported by Crime Stoppers)260,000+ illicit firearms (about 250,000 long arms, 10,000 handguns); grey market; 3D-printed firearms.
4. NSW Legislative Council, Budget Estimates hearing, 20 August 2026 (uncorrected transcript, p. 29)Premier Chris Minns: “This is a program not designed for illegal weapons…”, in answer to the Hon. Sarah Mitchell MLC; question from the Hon. Robert Borsak MLC.
5. NSW Government media release and ABC News coverage, 15–16 August 2026274,000 firearms and 50,000 licence holders in the buyback; up to $25,000 dealer grants; Premier's “hundreds of millions” and “price worth paying”; government slogans quoted on this site.
6. Tulipwood Economics, for the Sporting Shooters Association (SIFA) and Shooters Union, June 2026Up to $950M NSW compensation if 20% of legal firearms are surrendered (industry-commissioned estimate).
7. ABC News, September 2026 (reporting NSW Police)41 murders linked to underworld violence since 2020; 8 mistaken-identity murders since 2021 (14 including family and bystanders); 800+ Taskforce Falcon arrests; Merrylands West and Glen Alpine shootings; the $3,000 murder contract.
8. AAP via Newcastle Herald, 3 September 2026Police Minister Yasmin Catley: “I do not accept this is out of control”; Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane.
9. ABC News, 24 December 2025NSW firearms reforms passed, including the four-firearm cap for most licence holders.
10. Too Many Guns survey of NSW licensed firearms dealers40.9% can no longer provide amnesty services; 13.6% stopping within 1–3 months; 31.8% don't know; 13.6% continuing. Conducted by Too Many Guns in 2026; sample size and field dates available on request.
11. NSW Parliament member profiles, September 2026MP names, parties and electorate office contact details.
12. NSW Electoral CommissionPostcode to state electorate lookup.

Spotted an error? Tell us and we'll correct it. Quotes are reproduced as reported or as they appear in the transcript. Headlines are quoted as published.